Zell Wolf GWF Zell Wolf Version VII-2: REBIRTH Night 1 / Day 1

[Tubby23]

Y

For example, post 65. TD votes Dean. He didn't get any actual info, or else he would have opened with suspecting me.

You mean he votes Jon right

 

[A Maybe Baker]

@TD you're going to need to give us something more as to why we should trust you here. The numbers are already more stacked in the wolves' favor this time compared to what it normally is, and this reads very much as a "let me be confident and get someone out of the way early" - they get a kill tonight and Kat is dead with her next protection as well, so no fears there. They could open tomorrow as 8-6 with a guardian save in there.

 

[VashTheStampede]

So it looks like TD's vote for Local was retaliation.

Which fits Cole's interpretation of motive as well.

 

[Local Hero]

If there's one thing I've learned, this man knows how to find wolves day 1.

I vote Jon.

My bad. All these basic names confuse me lol

 

[finlandguy]

Let's say TD is right who do we target tomorrow? It would seem most people are settled on killing him if he is wrong.

I am hoping we get some seer stuff going on. Beyond that, at best maybe revisit Kelly if we're completely clueless?

As an alternative, considering there was no wolf kill night 1 and quite a few people are on the fence about Local, would there be merit to skipping lynch today and work with new info from tonight's findings? I don't think we would be worse off tomorrow than a normal day 1. Maybe slightly ahead information wise even if we got spirit seers, violinists, or red ladies here. We would also put the TD tough guy debacle to rest too without any extra action today.

 

[Dean]

Wish you guys would've come up with this a lot sooner. Now it's down to either lynch Local or lynch no one.

If we lynch Local, we will probably get some info.

I'll go along with lynching TD if we have enough votes. I don't want to be a sitting duck and not lynch someone, though.

 

[finlandguy]

Wish you guys would've come up with this a lot sooner. Now it's down to either lynch Local or lynch no one.

If we lynch Local, we will probably get some info.

I'll go along with lynching TD if we have enough votes. I don't want to be a sitting duck and not lynch someone, though.

It's sunday man. The kid and nephew wanted to go down to the park, wife wanted to go shopping for some stuff, then it was dinner time (had some delicious chili), and now finally I can properly sit down after the first couple hours of the day late at night.

Man, I gotta go get more of that chili now.

 

[Local Hero]

Wish you guys would've come up with this a lot sooner. Now it's down to either lynch Local or lynch no one.

If we lynch Local, we will probably get some info.

I'll go along with lynching TD if we have enough votes. I don't want to be a sitting duck and not lynch someone, though.

I mean, I frickin told everyone last night.

Vote with your heart.

 

[Raine]

I want to phrase this in a productive way... So, let's try this.

The wolves need Local alive more than the town does. That's not a reflection on him as a player, and Flagger is potentially a very powerful role, but simply because Flagger is 100% RRV. In a game where 10 people are vying for 4 slots, that immediately dropping to 3 slots is pretty bad for them out of the gate - especially on top of a seemingly failed Night 0 kill.

My take is that you should keep your votes on Local. If the wolves want to employ Guardian Wolf, let them. But the town itself should not risk getting a lynch attempt through, and we currently have the numbers to do that.

 

[VashTheStampede]

 

[Local Hero]

The wolves need Local alive more than the town does.

I'll keep reading but I don't like what you have to say so far

 

[Tubby23]

I am hoping we get some seer stuff going on. Beyond that, at best maybe revisit Kelly if we're completely clueless?

As an alternative, considering there was no wolf kill night 1 and quite a few people are on the fence about Local, would there be merit to skipping lynch today and work with new info from tonight's findings? I don't think we would be worse off tomorrow than a normal day 1. Maybe slightly ahead information wise even if we got spirit seers, violinists, or red ladies here. We would also put the TD tough guy debacle to rest too without any extra action today.

We get less information from not lynching than we might potentially get from lynching. IMO. Whether LH should be that target or not I'm not sold.

 

[Tubby23]

Wish you guys would've come up with this a lot sooner. Now it's down to either lynch Local or lynch no one.

If we lynch Local, we will probably get some info.

I'll go along with lynching TD if we have enough votes. I don't want to be a sitting duck and not lynch someone, though.

And this is why you gave me vibes you were going to hard when we had so much time

 

[VashTheStampede]

My take is that you should keep your votes on Local. If the wolves want to employ Guardian Wolf, let them. But the town itself should not risk getting a lynch attempt through, and we currently have the numbers to do that.

Did you mean "should not risk NOT getting a lynch attempt through"?

 

[Local Hero]

My take is that you should keep your votes on Local.

 

[Raine]

Did you mean "should not risk NOT getting a lynch attempt through"?

Yeah something like that I got distracted towards the end.

 

[Local Hero]

We should not risk not voting for no one, but not local because he's not a wolf.

 

[Raine]

I'm pretty sure that's just the role I've been pigeonholed into at this point.

 

[finlandguy]

We get less information from not lynching than we might potentially get from lynching. IMO. Whether LH should be that target or not I'm not sold.

Fair enough. I was just contemplating if we should work with our little breathing room we've been given with no kills yet. Two nights of seer info should make it easier for them to hit folks who seem suspicious without relying on RNG. Being 9-5 tomorrow rather than 8-5 (not including potential friendly fire) does sound more appealing to me.

 

[Tubby23]

We should not risk not voting for no one, but not local because he's not a wolf.

Unfortunately for you, at this point and time in the day, the only person we are likely to get a lynch on is you.

This is because too many people believed on blind faith what TD said (which may still be factual). It leaves us with a limited number of options. If we don't lynch you, we WILL lynch no one.

 

[Cole]

you guys need to be aware that a mistaken lynch today, and if the wolves have a berserk (or any other double kill mechanics) losing 3 civilians tonight would be devastating.

including sorcerer who can transition to a wolf at any time, and a fan who could have been already bit for what we know, that a 6 wolves. in a game of 16 people, the wolves only need 4 civilians to die in order to win if no wolves die.

I'm not sure what's happened in the last few games that everyone is so adamant about a lynch today, but being wrong now is potentially devastating.

Kelly's over aggression in order to (admittedly) control the narrative.

TD just once again blindly saying "I know a wolf!"

seems like there's a lot of confusion happening already and if we mess up, we're in trouble.

 

[Tubby23]

you guys need to be aware that a mistaken lynch today, and if the wolves have a berserk (or any other double kill mechanics) losing 3 civilians tonight would be devastating.

including sorcerer who can transition to a wolf at any time, and a fan who could have been already bit for what we know, that a 6 wolves. in a game of 16 people, the wolves only need 4 civilians to die in order to win if no wolves die.

I'm not sure what's happened in the last few games that everyone is so adamant about a lynch today, but being wrong now is potentially devastating.

Kelly's over aggression in order to (admittedly) control the narrative.

TD just once again blindly saying "I know a wolf!"

seems like there's a lot of confusion happening already and if we mess up, we're in trouble.

I agree, so it comes down to what level of risk we are willing to take that:
a) we could lose 3 townies;
b) we lose 1 and gain a target; or
c) we kill a wolf

 

[Dean]

And this is why you gave me vibes you were going to hard when we had so much time

I wasn't very aggressive, at least not until the clock was ticking down. I didn't even vote for anyone until this afternoon when it seemed like we had the numbers.

I don't necessarily agree or disagree with Cole. If we wait, and Local is a townie, then obviously that's the right play. But if we are sitting ducks here, and we learn nothing from today, even if we keep one extra townie alive, we are gonna lose at least one tonight.

 

[Raine]

It's worth mentioning that even if a Berserk exists, I still don't think there's been a successful usage of it in the previous 7 games. At this point until that actually happens, I wouldn't be overly concerned.

The Ritualist also has their spell, which - presuming they're careful with it - will +1 the town. And no, it's not me.

 

[Jon]

Honestly, I feel we have more on TD being evil than Local, but maybe that's just me.

 

[Dean]

Honestly, I feel we have more on TD being evil than Local, but maybe that's just me.

And I will say again, if there are 7 people willing to vote for TD, I'll go along and be the 8th.

 

[Tubby23]

I wasn't very aggressive, at least not until the clock was ticking down. I didn't even vote for anyone until this afternoon when it seemed like we had the numbers.

I don't necessarily agree or disagree with Cole. If we wait, and Local is a townie, then obviously that's the right play. But if we are sitting ducks here, and we learn nothing from today, even if we keep one extra townie alive, we are gonna lose at least one tonight.

The clock has only started ticking in the past hour or so, at that point there was still many hours left and people most likely to be active Sunday night rather than Sunday during the day.

A lot can happen in 3-4 hours and we still have 4

 

[Jon]

And I will say again, if there are 7 people willing to vote for TD, I'll go along and be the 8th.

I'm willing to swap. I don't know the most recent count though.

 

[Zell 17]

There's been no change.

Votes to lynch (8 required):

Local Hero - 9 (TD, Alu, shortkut, Dean, Tommy Boy, Smacktard, Kat, Raine, Jon)
TD - 2 (VashTheStampede, Local Hero)
Benzine - 1 (Jawneh)
Dean - 1 (Tubby23)
Jawneh - 1 (Benzine)
Tubby23 - 1 (Raposuh)

No vote - 1 (Cole)

Votes to skip (15 required):

Skip - 1 (Benzine)

No vote - 15 (Alu, Cole, Dean, Jawneh, Jon, Kat, Local Hero, Raine, Raposuh, shortkut, Smacktard, TD, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[Dean]

The clock has only started ticking in the past hour or so, at that point there was still many hours left and people most likely to be active Sunday night rather than Sunday during the day.

A lot can happen in 3-4 hours and we still have 4

I just know a lot of people were out and talking about not getting back in time, plus you've got time differences.

 

[Jon]

Well, me switching keeps enough votes on Local in an emergency, and starts the move to TD.

So switching my vote for TD for lynching.

 

[Dean]

@Jon @Anal Anniversary Adventure Activities @Kat @Raine @Tommy Boy

Are you willing to move off Local Hero and onto TD? Tommy Boy seemed to think TD was likely innocent, IIRC, or I could be conflating posts.

 

[Dean]

@Tubby23 how do you feel about voting for TD?

I know @Cole wants us to hold off, so if people think we should NOT lynch today, then they need to speak up.

 

[finlandguy]

A lot can happen in 3-4 hours and we still have 4

I mean, I saved TD from being lynched as a doctor before with only 2 hours to go. And we still got like 5.

 

[Jon]

@Jon @Anal Anniversary Adventure Activities @Kat @Raine @Tommy Boy

Are you willing to move off Local Hero and onto TD? Tommy Boy seemed to think TD was likely innocent, IIRC, or I could be conflating posts.

I am and I did.

 

[A Maybe Baker]

@Jon @Anal Anniversary Adventure Activities @Kat @Raine @Tommy Boy

Are you willing to move off Local Hero and onto TD? Tommy Boy seemed to think TD was likely innocent, IIRC, or I could be conflating posts.

Tommy Boy said TD has a good aura.

 

[Raine]

@Jon @Anal Anniversary Adventure Activities @Kat @Raine @Tommy Boy

Are you willing to move off Local Hero and onto TD? Tommy Boy seemed to think TD was likely innocent, IIRC, or I could be conflating posts.

I believe the worst-case scenario presented for TD was that he's the Werewolf Fan or Sorcerer, and not a proper wolf.

Given the available options and considerations, I would not be inclined to switch at present.

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (8 required):

Local Hero - 8 (TD, Alu, shortkut, Dean, Tommy Boy, Smacktard, Kat, Raine)
TD - 3 (VashTheStampede, Local Hero, Jon)
Benzine - 1 (Jawneh)
Dean - 1 (Tubby23)
Jawneh - 1 (Benzine)
Tubby23 - 1 (Raposuh)

No vote - 1 (Cole)

Votes to skip (15 required):

Skip - 1 (Benzine)

No vote - 15 (Alu, Cole, Dean, Jawneh, Jon, Kat, Local Hero, Raine, Raposuh, shortkut, Smacktard, TD, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[Kat]

don't necessarily agree or disagree with Cole. If we wait, and Local is a townie, then obviously that's the right play. But if we are sitting ducks here, and we learn nothing from today, even if we keep one extra townie alive, we are gonna lose at least one tonight.

Well... We do have two guaranteed roles which can kill. If we can have a seer check Local overnight, and he turns out to be innocent, then we can use the killing roles to catch back up.

I vote TD for now. I don't have plans today so I can keep a tab on the thread until the last minute and switch back if we think that's prudent. I feel like we're stuck on a Local more out of inertia than because it's right, though, and that doesn't seem like a good way to play.

 

[Dean]

Option 1: lynch Local "because TD said so"
Option 2: lynch TD because things don't add up
Option 3: don't lynch anyone because it could put us at an insurmountable disadvantage
Option 4: lynch Dean

 

[A Maybe Baker]

including sorcerer who can transition to a wolf at any time, and a fan who could have been already bit for what we know, that a 6 wolves. in a game of 16 people, the wolves only need 4 civilians to die in order to win if no wolves die.

If we're to believe @Kat the fan has not yet been turned (she claimed being attacked and defending herself)

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (8 required):

Local Hero - 7 (TD, Alu, shortkut, Dean, Tommy Boy, Smacktard, Raine)
TD - 4 (VashTheStampede, Local Hero, Jon, Kat)
Benzine - 1 (Jawneh)
Dean - 1 (Tubby23)
Jawneh - 1 (Benzine)
Tubby23 - 1 (Raposuh)

No vote - 1 (Cole)

Votes to skip (15 required):

Skip - 1 (Benzine)

No vote - 15 (Alu, Cole, Dean, Jawneh, Jon, Kat, Local Hero, Raine, Raposuh, shortkut, Smacktard, TD, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[Dean]

I'll vote for TD and see if we can get a lynch

 

[A Maybe Baker]

Option 1: lynch Local "because TD said so"
Option 2: lynch TD because things don't add up
Option 3: don't lynch anyone because it could put us at an insurmountable disadvantage
Option 4: lynch Dean

Option 4 all day.


Also I'm willing to switch.

 

[Tubby23]

@Tubby23 how do you feel about voting for TD?

I know @Cole wants us to hold off, so if people think we should NOT lynch today, then they need to speak up.

So let's say TD is lying and a wolf, we would lynch LH and learn that TD is lying. We'd vote for TD tomorrow (on the most simple version of what could happen obviously there is other complicating factors) and learn that he is a wolf and pat each other on the back.

Alternatively, lets say TD is telling the truth we lynch a wolf day 1. We lynch LH and pat each other on the back.

Alternatively, lets say TD made a vibes call and is a townie. We kill LH today, turns out he is good, and get left thinking "oh TD is lying let's lynch him now", we lynch TD and then the wolves will have by that point killed 4 people by us being none the wiser.

Or worse than all of that, we do nothing today and learn nothing.

 

[Tubby23]

Long story short, no matter how we have got to where we are my thought would be to stay the course.

 

[Dean]

So let's say TD is lying and a wolf, we would lynch LH and learn that TD is lying. We'd vote for TD tomorrow (on the most simple version of what could happen obviously there is other complicating factors) and learn that he is a wolf and pat each other on the back.

Alternatively, lets say TD is telling the truth we lynch a wolf day 1. We lynch LH and pat each other on the back.

Alternatively, lets say TD made a vibes call and is a townie. We kill LH today, turns out he is good, and get left thinking "oh TD is lying let's lynch him now", we lynch TD and then the wolves will have by that point killed 4 people by us being none the wiser.

Or worse than all of that, we do nothing today and learn nothing.

Or we lynch TD...
1. TD is good and we feel bad and may take Local out tomorrow
2. TD is bad. Beer all around.

 

[Dean]

But TD did seem adamant about Local. Kelly seemed adamant that after this day phase, his innocence would be proven.

 

[Zell 17]

Votes to lynch (8 required):

Local Hero - 6 (TD, Alu, shortkut, Tommy Boy, Smacktard, Raine)
TD - 5 (VashTheStampede, Local Hero, Jon, Kat, Dean)
Benzine - 1 (Jawneh)
Dean - 1 (Tubby23)
Jawneh - 1 (Benzine)
Tubby23 - 1 (Raposuh)

No vote - 1 (Cole)

Votes to skip (15 required):

Skip - 1 (Benzine)

No vote - 15 (Alu, Cole, Dean, Jawneh, Jon, Kat, Local Hero, Raine, Raposuh, shortkut, Smacktard, TD, Tommy Boy, Tubby23, VashTheStampede)

 

[Tubby23]

But TD did seem adamant about Local. Kelly seemed adamant that after this day phase, his innocence would be proven.

Agreed. TD isn't stupid either. He knows if he goes after LH hard and is wrong that he has a massive target on him. IMO, either he is town or he is a lowly ranked wolf willing to sacrifice.