Zell Wolf Wolf day 4

[Aluse Cannon]

That is exactly why I jumped on the chance to cause doubt. It was unplanned, but when opportunity strikes…

And now people know that they should just trust me instead.

Eric > Erik

 

[Quagmire]

 

[shortkut]

And now people know that they should just trust me instead.

Eric > Erik

The math doesn’t math

The only known is 2•Eric > Erik

So the only thing we can say with certainty is that Eric > 0.5•Erik.

Could Eric be greater than Erik? Possibly, but we cannot prove that with the data provided

 

[Aluse Cannon]

The math doesn’t math

The only known is 2•Eric > Erik

So the only thing we can say with certainty is that Eric > 0.5•Erik.

Could Eric be greater than Erik? Possibly, but we cannot prove that with the data provided

Any post of yours longer than a single sentence should result in you being shot in game.

 

[shortkut]

Any post of yours longer than a single sentence should result in you being shot in game.

question: how to memes/gifs fit into this restriction?

 

[Aluse Cannon]

question: how to memes/gifs fit into this restriction?

Can test this out over the coming games.

 

[shortkut]

Can test this out over the coming games.

Challenge accepted

 

[shortkut]

 

[Quagmire]

question: how to memes/gifs fit into this restriction?

 

[shortkut]

 

[Kat]

Why is the two Doctors thing sus in the first place? It's really not that remarkable, and she didn't even have to lie about being able to protect others.

Rarely get two of the same roles, and even more rare get two double roles (dead body was a seer as well)

Yes it happens, but odds are less likely so as a math person I play the odds

Dimmerwit, sounds like we need some stats on how often we get two of the same role.

I bet it's a lot more likely than you think, Quagmire. Have you ever heard of the birthday paradox/problem? It's very similar in concept: how likely is it that two people in a group will share a birthday? There are 365 (technically 366 but whatever) possibilities, so you'd think a group of twenty or thirty people almost never would. However, you only need 23 people for the chance to be 50% that at least two people will share a birthday. An explanation of the math: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

We have far fewer role possibilities, so even with fewer people, I bet the likelihood of a double role is quite high. Somebody less lazy than me can do the math if they like.

 

[shortkut]

Dimmerwit, sounds like we need some stats on how often we get two of the same role.

I bet it's a lot more likely than you think, Quagmire. Have you ever heard of the birthday paradox/problem? It's very similar in concept: how likely is it that two people in a group will share a birthday? There are 365 (technically 366 but whatever) possibilities, so you'd think a group of twenty or thirty people almost never would. However, you only need 23 people for the chance to be 50% that at least two people will share a birthday. An explanation of the math: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

We have far fewer role possibilities, so even with fewer people, I bet the likelihood of a double role is quite high. Somebody less lazy than me can do the math if they like.

We once had 3 Eric/ks with the exact same role

 

[Kat]

Hey, whose idea was it to kill Fools the same night Ants said he'd shoot him? That was hilarious.

 

[shortkut]

Hey, whose idea was it to kill Fools the same night Ants said he'd shoot him? That was hilarious.

Mine. First we wanted Ants to look guilty because he wouldn’t be able to prove himself, then it was pointed out that Ants attacks first, so we decided to have 2 townies die. FR would be proven and we didn’t know his role. We were concerned he was the last strong role

 

[Zell 17]

Hey, whose idea was it to kill Fools the same night Ants said he'd shoot him? That was hilarious.

Kind of mine. I suggested it to Christina in the lovers chat and she passed it along to wolf chat that Fools was like an unprotected strong villager.

 

[shortkut]

Kind of mine. I suggested it to Christina in the lovers chat and she passed it along to wolf chat that Fools was like an unprotected strong villager.

Independent lines of thinking. I suggested killing him first then Christina supported it. I don’t remember who brought up the idea he might be the final strong villager

 

[Aluse Cannon]

It was also just the right move. If you know he's about to be 100% confirmed it means you have one less confirmed townie out there.

Sad state of affairs though when you survive all day 1 and can't post only to be killed night 2 lol. Still, got some use out of the role.

 

[shortkut]

It was also just the right move. If you know he's about to be 100% confirmed it means you have one less confirmed townie out there.

Sad state of affairs though when you survive all day 1 and can't post only to be killed night 2 lol. Still, got some use out of the role.

It’s his fault for being an alarm clock. I always silence my alarm clock

 

[Local Hero]

Mentioned in Ants' thread so probably everyone will see it, but just in case - https://gwforums.com/threads/local-wolf-sign-up.3247/

 

[Quagmire]

Dimmerwit, sounds like we need some stats on how often we get two of the same role.

I bet it's a lot more likely than you think, Quagmire. Have you ever heard of the birthday paradox/problem? It's very similar in concept: how likely is it that two people in a group will share a birthday? There are 365 (technically 366 but whatever) possibilities, so you'd think a group of twenty or thirty people almost never would. However, you only need 23 people for the chance to be 50% that at least two people will share a birthday. An explanation of the math: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

We have far fewer role possibilities, so even with fewer people, I bet the likelihood of a double role is quite high. Somebody less lazy than me can do the math if they like.

I am very familiar with that and I love the birthday paradox, it probably happens a little more than I realize but less than 50% so more likely to not happen would be my guess, and then in this case we would have had two potential double roles. So I knew we had the two seers and I was right about not having two doctors

 

[dimmerwit]

Dimmerwit, sounds like we need some stats on how often we get two of the same role.

I bet it's a lot more likely than you think, Quagmire. Have you ever heard of the birthday paradox/problem? It's very similar in concept: how likely is it that two people in a group will share a birthday? There are 365 (technically 366 but whatever) possibilities, so you'd think a group of twenty or thirty people almost never would. However, you only need 23 people for the chance to be 50% that at least two people will share a birthday. An explanation of the math: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

We have far fewer role possibilities, so even with fewer people, I bet the likelihood of a double role is quite high. Somebody less lazy than me can do the math if they like.

	Town
Z1	1
Z2	1
Z3	2
Z4	2
Z5	1
Z6	1
Z7	1
Z8	0
Z9	2
Z10	1
Z11	1
Z12	1
Z13	2
Z14	2
Z15	0
Z16	1
Z17	2
Z18	0
Z19	0
BW2	0
BW3	1
Z20	1
KatWolf	0
Z21	1
BW4	0
Ben1	0
PPT	0
BW5	0
BW6	0
BW7	1

 

[dimmerwit]

The numbers are the numbers of pairs (or triples, which has happened once).

The odds are a bit lower in newer games since new roles have been added, though the run of zeros is interesting. I'll check that manually. Edit: seems correct.

 

[Kat]

	Town
Z1	1
Z2	1
Z3	2
Z4	2
Z5	1
Z6	1
Z7	1
Z8	0
Z9	2
Z10	1
Z11	1
Z12	1
Z13	2
Z14	2
Z15	0
Z16	1
Z17	2
Z18	0
Z19	0
BW2	0
BW3	1
Z20	1
KatWolf	0
Z21	1
BW4	0
Ben1	0
PPT	0
BW5	0
BW6	0
BW7	1

I feel vindicated. I wonder if benzine is generating his roles in some way which makes duplicates less likely.

 

[Aluse Cannon]

I feel vindicated. I wonder if benzine is generating his roles in some way which makes duplicates less likely.

Only 6 games out of over 30 had more than one duplicate role though. This game already had duplicate roles in aura seer before the duplicate doctor game.

So it was very unlikely to have a second set of duplicates based on that.

 

[Local Hero]

How would one generate roles?

I went down the list on mine, assigning people to each unique role to ensure each role got used, then rolled for which one was to be duplicated

 

[dimmerwit]

By comparison for the wolves it's happened 9 times in 30 games, with one of those being a trio (we all remember that one lol). Whilst it's possible for there to be two pairs in one game this has never happened. Understandably lower given more roles and fewer slots.

 

[Kat]

How would one generate roles?

I went down the list on mine, assigning people to each unique role to ensure each role got used, then rolled for which one was to be duplicated

I use Excel to generate lists of each type of role in the correct number (so if there are four wolves, I randomly pick from the possible wolf roles four times). If an invalid combo comes up (like two jailers), then I reroll until it's valid. Then I generate a random number for each selected role, then order the roles by that number, to mix them up. Then I assign them in that order to people in alphabetical order.

 

[Quagmire]

The numbers are the numbers of pairs (or triples, which has happened once).

The odds are a bit lower in newer games since new roles have been added, though the run of zeros is interesting. I'll check that manually. Edit: seems correct.

I wonder if since I started later, around when new roles came out is why it seems less often for me

 

[shortkut]

@Zell 17 ’s RNG is simultaneously the best and worst RNG

 

[Benzine]

Jawneh has been lynched. He was the Alpha Wolf.

 

[Local Hero]

 

[Quagmire]

Jawneh has been lynched. He was the Alpha Wolf.

 

[Aluse Cannon]

Shortkut has been stabbed

 

[Zell 17]

Surely wolf day 5 is coming soon

 

[Local Hero]

@shortkut has exploded.

 

[shortkut]

 

[Fool's Requiem]

Not open for further replies.

 

[shortkut]

Since wolves kill at night, and it is a never ending night phase, does that mean @Kat the wolf can kill endlessly?

 

[Fool's Requiem]

 

[shortkut]

 

[Quagmire]

Surely wolf day 5 is coming soon

 

[shortkut]

 

[shortkut]

 

[shortkut]

 

[shortkut]

 

[Fool's Requiem]

 

[shortkut]

 

[shortkut]

 

[canadaguy]

The most communist compound

 

[Fool's Requiem]

communist