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This News Doesn't Suck!
Everyone stop what you're doing! It's happening! GW's own Alu is having a baby!! Come and congratulate him here: Need some help identifying this picture.
We're so happy for you, Alu!
Wolf Statistics Bureau
- Thread starter dimmerwit
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Can we have a count for each person
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VashTheStampede
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Where's the game where I was the Priest and I kept silent the whole time with the anticipation of splashing someone "at random" only for me to get killed by the SK in the middle of the first day?
I think I remember this one. I got alley-ooped a kill thanks to Vash(?) and whomever revived me. Good times.
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lamb chops
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Oh right, the chart you posted is "first death". I wasn't the first to die in that game.
I'm pretty sure I intended to splash Local Hero which would have totally fucked his Fool game in the first round.
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You're welcome for one of those.
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Best game ever
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Didn't even see Benzine's react before deciding i was going to quote and say "so did Benzine"
He was really not happy when the SK was brought back to life.
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I think this is the equivalent of that chart, being every death before the first day's lynch. Bear in mind the numbers are slightly different to what I posted before as this includes non-town deaths.
| Game | Player | Role | Phase | Manner | Killer | DB? | Revived? |
| Zell Wolf 1 | Tubby23 | Priest | Day 1 | Splashed | Tubby23 | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 2 | Alu | Aura Seer | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | Yes |
| Zell Wolf 2 | Tommy Boy | Priest | Day 1 | Splashed | Tommy Boy | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 2 | Ryan | Fool | Day 1 | Shot | Cole | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 3 | shortkut | Spirit Seer | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 4 | Ants | Medium | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 4 | Jawneh | Red Lady | Night 1 | Bad visit | Smacktard | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 5 | Fool's Requiem | Spirit Seer | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 6 | shortkut | Spirit Seer | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 7 | canadaguy | Detective | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 7 | Ants | Priest | Day 1 | Splashed | Ants | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 7 | Fool's Requiem | Priest | Day 1 | Illusionist | TD | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 9 | Fool's Requiem | Bully | Night 1 | Werewolves | No | No | |
| Zell Wolf 10 | Jon | Red Lady | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 10 | Raine | Ritualist | Day 1 | Alchemist | Fool's Requiem | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 11 | canadaguy | Ritualist | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 12 | Tubby23 | Spirit Seer | Night 1 | Evil Detective | Jawneh | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 12 | VashTheStampede | Warden | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 13 | Fool's Requiem | Gunner | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | Yes |
| Zell Wolf 14 | VashTheStampede | Warden | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 14 | Kat | Wolf Avenger | Day 1 | Splashed | Fool's Requiem | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 14 | Alu | Bell Ringer | Day 1 | Wolf Avenger | Kat | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 14 | Jawneh | Gunner | Day 1 | Shot | Raine | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 16 | Smacktard | Confusion Wolf | Night 1 | Evil Detective | Alu | Yes* | No |
| Zell Wolf 16 | Local Hero | Doctor | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | Yes* | No |
| Zell Wolf 17 | Jawneh | Red Lady | Night 1 | Bad visit | Smacktard | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 17 | Fool's Requiem | Gunner | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 17 | TD | Cupid | Day 1 | Shot | Local Hero | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 19 | Quagmire | Conjuror | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Zell Wolf 19 | shortkut | Sheriff | Day 1 | Shot | Local Hero | No | No |
| Benzine Wolf 2 | shortkut | Priest | Day 1 | Splashed | shortkut | Yes | No |
| Benzine Wolf 3 | Zell 17 | Judge | Day 1 | Shot | VashTheStampede | Yes | No |
| Benzine Wolf 3 | dimmerwit | Shaman Wolf | Day 1 | Splashed | Fool's Requiem | Yes | No |
| Zell Wolf 20 | canadaguy | Priest | Day 1 | Splashed | canadaguy | Yes | No |
| Zell Wolf 21 | Fool's Requiem | Red Lady | Night 1 | Bad visit | Werewolves | Yes | No |
| Benzine Wolf 4 | Tommy Boy | Priest | Day 1 | Splashed | Tommy Boy | Yes | No |
| Benzine Wolf 4 | shortkut | Spirit Seer | Day 1 | Shot | dimmerwit | Yes | No |
| Ben Wolf 1 | Smacktard | Wolf Avenger | Day 1 | Shot | VashTheStampede | Yes | No |
| Ben Wolf 1 | Local Hero | Detective | Day 1 | Wolf Avenger | Smacktard | Yes | No |
| Paranormal Prime Time | Ants | Wolf Trickster | Day 1 | Splashed | Local Hero | Yes | No |
| Benzine Wolf 5 | Tommy Boy | Gunner | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | No |
| Benzine Wolf 6 | VashTheStampede | Bully | Night 1 | Werewolves | - | No | Yes |
| Player | Games | Deaths | / |
| Ryan | 3 | 1 | 33.33% |
| Ants | 11 | 3 | 27.27% |
| Fool's Requiem | 27 | 6 | 22.22% |
| Tubby23 | 10 | 2 | 20.00% |
| shortkut | 29 | 5 | 17.24% |
| canadaguy | 18 | 3 | 16.67% |
| Zell 17 | 7 | 1 | 14.29% |
| Jawneh | 26 | 3 | 11.54% |
| Smacktard | 18 | 2 | 11.11% |
| Tommy Boy | 27 | 3 | 11.11% |
| VashTheStampede | 29 | 3 | 10.34% |
| Raine | 10 | 1 | 10.00% |
| Quagmire | 12 | 1 | 8.33% |
| Local Hero | 26 | 2 | 7.69% |
| TD | 13 | 1 | 7.69% |
| Alu | 28 | 2 | 7.14% |
| dimmerwit | 14 | 1 | 7.14% |
| Jon | 17 | 1 | 5.88% |
| Kat | 24 | 1 | 4.17% |
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Pretty sure I've played in more than 10 games.
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Question: does your chart include suicides like a tubbyboy priest move?
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Yes. That's the first one on the chart.
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Priests are boring, so let's instead look at the Gunner.
19 "Gunners" with 18 shots fired, with a 50% wolf success rate and a 66.7% baddie success rate.
Note that two games with asterisks, Jon in Ben 1 and Fool's in BW3. Those were both Conjuror games where the Conjuror took the role of the Gunner. Also note Zell 13, where Fool's Requiem was killed on night 1 but was revived the next night. Good thing he was as he shot two wolves.
Fool's took 2 wolves down, as did Jawneh in the very first game. Local took down a wolf and the Cupid in Zell 17, whilst Cole took down a Fool and Serial Killer in the same game.
Note that I count the Cupid as a baddie. Whilst the Cupid themselves is perhaps not immediately bad like a Fool, HH or Solo Killer, I figured the information value made it worth including. Local shooting the Cupid is the only instance of this if you want to adjust. I guess a coupled or instigated town player would be a good shot too, but this has never happened.
Let's break down the shots individually.
Let's look at the combined totals by player. Since it's rare for people to be the Gunner the data is not hugely instructive as the data set for each player is tiny, so it's really for interest only.
What might be more interesting is success per day. Unsurprisingly, shots after day 1 tend to be better as there is often more information to go on. On Day 2 the town has never missed a shot, nailing 5 wolves and the Serial Killer (sorry Ants!). Day 3 is also 100% albeit with 2 shots. The town is not immune to failure though, as they missed one on Day 4.
But of course the trade-off is that the longer the Gunner waits, the more opportunity he has to die. So let's look at when the Gunner dies. Note that this does not include the two Conjuror games, hence 17 games. I did include Fool's death and revival in the numbers, but if you want you can add a death and subtract an alive to night 2 and beyond. GO = Game over.
Note that it's impossible to verify when the Gunner died during the day. The data reflects the end of a particular phase. So for example for Day 2, 43.75% of Gunners entered the day but only 37.5% survived it.
Let's take into account the survival data to create a modified success rate. Column 2 is wolf, 3 is non-Town.
Whilst the data does seem as though the higher accuracy does make taking shots on day 2 and 3 worth it over day 1 and 2, the dataset for day 3 is very small as there were only 2 shots made. An interesting theory, though. Changing the Fool's Requiem story to him dying and never being revived also reduces the advantage, particularly on day 3 which drops to 31%, and reduces the shots fired on day 3 to a grand total of 1.
| Game | Player | Shots | Wolf | Town | SV | SK | % wolf | % not town | Fate | Phase | Game outcome |
| BW5 | Tommy Boy | 0 | Werewolves | Night 1 | Solo Voter (Cupid) | ||||||
| Ben 1 | VashTheStampede | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | 100.00% | Werewolves | Night 2 | Town | |||
| Ben 1 | Jon* | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | 100.00% | Survived | Day 3 | Town | |||
| BW4 | dimmerwit | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.00% | 50.00% | Werewolves | Night 5 | Werewolves | ||
| Kat Wolf | Dead Body | 0 | Werewolves | Night 1 | Werewolves | ||||||
| BW3 | VashTheStampede | 1 | 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | Werewolves | Night 2 | Werewolves | |||
| BW3 | Fool's Requiem* | 1 | 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | Survived | Day 3 | Werewolves | |||
| Z19 | Local Hero | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.00% | 50.00% | Survived | Night 5 | Town | ||
| Z17 | Fool's Requiem | 0 | Werewolves | Night 1 | Town | ||||||
| Z17 | Local Hero | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.00% | 100.00% | Werewolves | Night 4 | Town | ||
| Z16 | rktaker | 1 | 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | Survived | Night 5 | Town | |||
| Z14 | Jawneh | 0 | Shot by Gunner | Day 1 | Solo Killer (Inst.) | ||||||
| Z14 | Raine | 1 | 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | Werewolves | Night 2 | Solo Killer (Inst.) | |||
| Z13 | Alu | 0 | Werewolves | Night 2 | Town | ||||||
| Z13 | Fool's Requiem | 2 | 2 | 100.00% | 100.00% | Survived* | Night 4 | Town | |||
| Z10 | Jawneh | 0 | Survived | Day 1 | Solo Voter (Fool) | ||||||
| Z4 | Cole | 0 | Werewolves | Night 2 | Town | ||||||
| Z2 | Cole | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.00% | 100.00% | Wolf Avenger | Day 2 | Town | ||
| Z1 | Jawneh | 2 | 2 | 100.00% | 100.00% | Survived | Day 4 | Town | |||
| Total | 18 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 50.00% | 66.67% |
19 "Gunners" with 18 shots fired, with a 50% wolf success rate and a 66.7% baddie success rate.
Note that two games with asterisks, Jon in Ben 1 and Fool's in BW3. Those were both Conjuror games where the Conjuror took the role of the Gunner. Also note Zell 13, where Fool's Requiem was killed on night 1 but was revived the next night. Good thing he was as he shot two wolves.
Fool's took 2 wolves down, as did Jawneh in the very first game. Local took down a wolf and the Cupid in Zell 17, whilst Cole took down a Fool and Serial Killer in the same game.
Note that I count the Cupid as a baddie. Whilst the Cupid themselves is perhaps not immediately bad like a Fool, HH or Solo Killer, I figured the information value made it worth including. Local shooting the Cupid is the only instance of this if you want to adjust. I guess a coupled or instigated town player would be a good shot too, but this has never happened.
Let's break down the shots individually.
| Game | Player | Day | Target | Role | Wolf? | Non-town? |
| BW5 | Tommy Boy | |||||
| Ben 1 | VashTheStampede | 1 | Smacktard | Wolf Avenger | Yes | Yes |
| Ben 1 | Jon* | 2 | Zell 17 | Guardian Wolf | Yes | Yes |
| BW4 | dimmerwit | 1 | shortkut | Spirit Seer | No | No |
| BW4 | dimmerwit | 2 | Ben | Wolf Avenger | Yes | Yes |
| Kat Wolf | Dead Body | |||||
| BW3 | VashTheStampede | 1 | Zell 17 | Judge | No | No |
| BW3 | Fool's Requiem | 1 | Christina | Preacher | No | No |
| Z19 | Local Hero | 1 | shortkut | Sheriff | No | No |
| Z19 | Local Hero | 2 | rktaker | Shadow Wolf | Yes | Yes |
| Z17 | Fool's Requiem | |||||
| Z17 | Local Hero | 1 | TD | Cupid | No | Yes |
| Z17 | Local Hero | 2 | The Flame | Nightmare Wolf | Yes | Yes |
| Z16 | rktaker | 4 | Fool's Requiem | Aura Seer | No | No |
| Z14 | Jawneh | |||||
| Z14 | Raine | 1 | Jawneh | Gunner | No | No |
| Z13 | Alu | |||||
| Z13 | Fool's Requiem | 2 | GwJumpman | Alpha Wolf | Yes | Yes |
| Z13 | Fool's Requiem | 3 | shortkut | Blind Wolf | Yes | Yes |
| Z10 | Jawneh | |||||
| Z4 | Cole | |||||
| Z2 | Cole | 1 | Ryan | Fool | No | Yes |
| Z2 | Cole | 2 | Ants | Serial Killer | No | Yes |
| Z1 | Jawneh | 3 | Kat | Berserk Wolf | Yes | Yes |
| Z1 | Jawneh | 4 | Killface | Shaman Wolf | Yes | Yes |
Let's look at the combined totals by player. Since it's rare for people to be the Gunner the data is not hugely instructive as the data set for each player is tiny, so it's really for interest only.
| Player | Games | Shots | Wolf | Town | SV | SK | Wolf % | Non-town % |
| Tommy Boy | 1 | 0 | ||||||
| VashTheStampede | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | ||
| Jon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | |||
| dimmerwit | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | ||
| Dead Body | 1 | 0 | ||||||
| Fool's Requiem | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 66.7% | 66.7% | ||
| Local Hero | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 75.0% | |
| rktaker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Jawneh | 4 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 100.0% | |||
| Raine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Alu | 1 | 0 | ||||||
| Cole | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
What might be more interesting is success per day. Unsurprisingly, shots after day 1 tend to be better as there is often more information to go on. On Day 2 the town has never missed a shot, nailing 5 wolves and the Serial Killer (sorry Ants!). Day 3 is also 100% albeit with 2 shots. The town is not immune to failure though, as they missed one on Day 4.
| Day | Shots | Wolf | Town | SV | SK | Wolf % | Non-town % |
| 1 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
But of course the trade-off is that the longer the Gunner waits, the more opportunity he has to die. So let's look at when the Gunner dies. Note that this does not include the two Conjuror games, hence 17 games. I did include Fool's death and revival in the numbers, but if you want you can add a death and subtract an alive to night 2 and beyond. GO = Game over.
| Night 1 | Day 1 | Night 2 | Day 2 | Night 3 | Day 3 | Night 4 | Day 4 | Night 5 | |
| Gunners Alive | 13 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Gunners Dead | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Gunners GO | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| % living total | 76.47% | 64.71% | 41.18% | 35.29% | 35.29% | 35.29% | 23.53% | 17.65% | 0.00% |
| % living -GO | 76.47% | 68.75% | 43.75% | 37.50% | 37.50% | 37.50% | 26.67% | 21.43% | 0.00% |
| % dead total | 23.53% | 29.41% | 52.94% | 58.82% | 58.82% | 58.82% | 64.71% | 64.71% | 70.59% |
| % dead -GO | 23.53% | 31.25% | 56.25% | 62.50% | 62.50% | 62.50% | 73.33% | 78.57% | 100.00% |
Note that it's impossible to verify when the Gunner died during the day. The data reflects the end of a particular phase. So for example for Day 2, 43.75% of Gunners entered the day but only 37.5% survived it.
Let's take into account the survival data to create a modified success rate. Column 2 is wolf, 3 is non-Town.
| Day 1 | 10% | 29% |
| Day 2 | 36% | 44% |
| Day 3 | 38% | 38% |
| Day 4 | 13% | 13% |
Whilst the data does seem as though the higher accuracy does make taking shots on day 2 and 3 worth it over day 1 and 2, the dataset for day 3 is very small as there were only 2 shots made. An interesting theory, though. Changing the Fool's Requiem story to him dying and never being revived also reduces the advantage, particularly on day 3 which drops to 31%, and reduces the shots fired on day 3 to a grand total of 1.
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kut is [almost] always bad
I KNEW Kat was bad. But I thought a two-for-one on a Cupid couple was a bigger win if successful, so I took a chance.Yeah great job man. I remember you did that right at the end of a long post where you explained why you suspected somebody other than Christina
Also, for fun, here was my post shooting Christina:
Guys, I have a confession.
Ok, not that.
Nope, still not it.
There we go.
I am the Conjuror, not the Priest. I was masquerading as the Priest to lull you all into a false sense of security.
General concensus from the land of the dead is that CG's blind luck shot with the Bell Ringer that is too LUDICROUS and that he had help from a lover.
They also think Jon is being weird, like he's not playing the game like he usually does. This suggests to me that he's got a solo role, not a wolf role. Townie is possible, but I'm thinking that if there is a Cupid couple, that Jon is the Cupid.
A hunch of Local being the Alchemist was brought up.
And finally, @Christina, Vash said, "I got this for you."
View attachment 20074
Fool's Requiem shoots Christina
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Since I have the table running, I gathered the Priest data quickly.
Interesting that of the failed splashes 3 of the 7 were because they hit the Solo Killer which is impressive given how they're outnumbered so substantially by the Town.
Day 1 splashes are terrible. Day 2 and 3 on the other hand have only failed once, and even that was an Alchemist.
Both times a Conjuror had a successful Gunner shot they also had a successful Priest splash.
| Game | Player | Day | Target | Role | Failed Town? | Failed SK? | Fate | Phase | Game outcome |
| PPT | Local Hero | 1 | Ants | Wolf Trickster | Survived | Night 3 | Town | ||
| Ben 1 | Jawneh | Werewolves | Night 3 | Town | |||||
| Ben 1 | Jon* | 3 | Benzine | Berserk Wolf | Survived | Day 3 | Town | ||
| BW4 | Tommy Boy | 1 | dimmerwit | Gunner | Yes | Self-splash | Day 1 | Werewolves | |
| Kat Wolf | Alu | 2 | Ben | Alpha Wolf | Arsonist | Night 3 | Werewolves | ||
| Z20 | canadaguy | 1 | Tommy Boy | Beast Hunter | Yes | Self-splash | Day 1 | Werewolves | |
| Z20 | Kat | 2 | dimmerwit | Shadow Wolf | Wolf Uprising | Day 6 | Werewolves | ||
| BW3 | Dead Body | Werewolves | |||||||
| BW3 | Fool's Requiem* | 1 | dimmerwit | Shaman Wolf | Declared over | Day 3 | Werewolves | ||
| BW2 | shortkut | 1 | canadaguy | Arsonist | Yes | Self-splash | Day 1 | Solo Voter (HH) | |
| Z17 | Kat (coupled) | Werewolves | Night 2 | Town | |||||
| Z17 | VashTheStampede | 2 | Smacktard | Blind Wolf | Survived | Day 5 | Town | ||
| Z15 | Dead Body | Solo Voter (Fool) | |||||||
| Z14 | Fool's Requiem | 1 | Kat | Wolf Avenger | Werewolves | Night 4 | Solo Killer (Inst.) | ||
| Z7 | Ants | 1 | shortkut | Avenger | Yes | Self-splash | Day 1 | Game Tied | |
| Z7 | Fool's Requiem | Illusionist | Game Tied | ||||||
| Z4 | Tommy Boy | 2 | Raposuh | Alchemist | Yes | Self-splash | Day 2 | Town | |
| Z4 | canadaguy | 2 | shortkut | Wolf Seer | Survived | Day 5 | Town | ||
| Z2 | Tommy Boy | 1 | Cole | Gunner | Yes | Self-splash | Day 1 | Town | |
| Z1 | Tubby23 | 1 | Fool's Requiem | Serial Killer | Yes | Self-splash | Day 2 | Town |
| Day | Shots | // | Wolf | Town | SV | SK | // | Wolf % | Town % | SV % | SK % |
| 1 | 9 | // | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | // | 33.3% | 44.44% | 0.00% | 22.22% |
| 2 | 5 | // | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | // | 80.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.00% |
| 3 | 1 | // | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | // | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Interesting that of the failed splashes 3 of the 7 were because they hit the Solo Killer which is impressive given how they're outnumbered so substantially by the Town.
Day 1 splashes are terrible. Day 2 and 3 on the other hand have only failed once, and even that was an Alchemist.
Both times a Conjuror had a successful Gunner shot they also had a successful Priest splash.
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I think think my holy water should have quenched canadaguy’s murderous flames
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Paranormal Prime Time, one of Ben's games. The ruleset was the same.
I believe the double splash was in Kat's chaos game, which I don't include in the stats.
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