U.K. UK Elections: The UK votes to become independent from the UK

[Ancle Suck]

Well at least the UK we've come to know and love, with those crazy conservative Tories running the show for a while now. They're expecting to be shellacked today in one of the worst losses for a ruling party in history, if the polls are to be believed (I think the last I saw showed the Tories coming in 3rd).

Keir Starmer will be the new PM, it's just a question of how much of Parliament will be Labour.


He's also not great, to be honest. But oh well. We'll see how this turns out!

 

[dimmerwit]

I wrote earlier: "My guess is that the Tories will do a little better than expectations, although they won't beat their previous worst result of 156", but for some reason didn't post it. And that's what the exit poll predicts. I think the large number of undecideds and the late Reform issues might have helped them to an awful but not apocalyptic result.

 

[Ancle Suck]

I wrote earlier: "My guess is that the Tories will do a little better than expectations, although they won't beat their previous worst result of 156", but for some reason didn't post it. And that's what the exit poll predicts. I think the large number of undecideds and the late Reform issues might have helped them to an awful but not apocalyptic result.

CNN has an exit poll with worse results than that for them. What's the one you're looking at?

 

[dimmerwit]

That is the one. To be clear I said they wouldn't beat 156.

I know it's strange to say given it's a dire result, but there's been a real doubt as to whether they would reach 100, and even in some polls and forecasts as to whether they would even finish second ahead of the Lib Dems. I think this is close to being the best-case outcome, which should tell you how awful their polling position has been.

 

[Ancle Suck]

That is the one. To be clear I said they wouldn't beat 156.

I know it's strange to say given it's a dire result, but there's been a real doubt as to whether they would reach 100, and even in some polls and forecasts as to whether they would even finish second ahead of the Lib Dems. I think this is close to being the best-case outcome, which should tell you how awful their polling position has been.

Ah I totally read what you said in a different way, that it would be bad but not record setting bag for them.

 

[Crystal]

So another anti-trans bigot takes office. Whoo.

 

[Ancle Suck]

Yeah Starmer sucks as well. Labour is better than the Tories, but that doesn't really take much.

 

[Crystal]

Yeah Starmer sucks as well. Labour is better than the Tories, but that doesn't really take much.

Where mah country gone...

 

[dimmerwit]

The respected analyst John Curtice has just said this is an election the Conservatives lost rather than Labour won, and he's right. Labour's vote share is up only 1.3% as I type. Exit poll has been revised to Labour 405, Conservative 154.

The Tories even gained Leicester East thanks to an anti-Gaza vote. In places with more than 20% Muslim population Labour's vote is down 19%, more than the Tories on 13%.

 

[Benzine]

Good but still hate the purple governments we're all forced to endure

 

[Quagmire]

Well at least the UK we've come to know and love, with those crazy conservative Tories running the show for a while now. They're expecting to be shellacked today in one of the worst losses for a ruling party in history, if the polls are to be believed (I think the last I saw showed the Tories coming in 3rd).

Good luck, fuck regressives which is what modern conservative parties are now

 

[Ancle Suck]

The respected analyst John Curtice has just said this is an election the Conservatives lost rather than Labour won, and he's right. Labour's vote share is up only 1.3% as I type. Exit poll has been revised to Labour 405, Conservative 154.

The Tories even gained Leicester East thanks to an anti-Gaza vote. In places with more than 20% Muslim population Labour's vote is down 19%, more than the Tories on 13%.

With the actual numbers out now it seems like this updated poll you saw was incorrect? Looks like it's much closer to the original poll in fact.

 

[dimmerwit]

With the actual numbers out now it seems like this updated poll you saw was incorrect? Looks like it's much closer to the original poll in fact.

I noticed that too when I woke up.

To be clear, the initial exit poll is done by the BBC, Sky and ITV at 10pm and is usually considered pretty accurate. It generally held up pretty well. The later poll was the BBC revising the original exit poll to take into account actual results, but it seems to have just made it worse.

Labour landslide on 33.7% of the UK vote, a record low for any majority government. Lib Dems only went from 11.6% to 12.2% and yet they got almost nine times as many seats as in 2019.

 

[Ancle Suck]

I noticed that too when I woke up.

To be clear, the initial exit poll is done by the BBC, Sky and ITV at 10pm and is usually considered pretty accurate. It generally held up pretty well. The later poll was the BBC revising the original exit poll to take into account actual results, but it seems to have just made it worse.

Labour landslide on 33.7% of the UK vote, a record low for any majority government. Lib Dems only went from 11.6% to 12.2% and yet they got almost nine times as many seats as in 2019.

It is fairly crazy how many seats they ended up taking with such a low vote total.

 

[MC74]

It's definitely an election where the Tories defeated themselves more than it is the Labour winning. Despite the Tories losing though, unfortunatel Starmer is shite too, so it's not like things are going to be that much better sadly.

 

[Ancle Suck]

What it does show is that we're likely to see elections in the future where no party breaks through with a whopping lead in votes in the end. The top two vote receiving parties were barely above 50% this time, with additional parties gaining lots of support outside of that, despite not getting many seats (outside of the liberal Dems).

 

[dimmerwit]

It's difficult to say for sure though. It was only in 2017 that we had 82% vote for the big two, which was the highest since 1970.

And I do wonder how the appetite for the split in the right will persist since under the current system it will only help Labour. They will have seen what happened in Canada where all their own Reform party really did was to hand the Liberal party comfortable victories with a relatively small share of the vote, and they didn't win again until they re-unified.